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Australian Federal Election Polls: Who’s Ahead?



GRAIN OF SALT: The accuracy of political polling is in doubt and we at PEDESTRIAN.TV share those concerns, but we’re still going to report on them this election campaign. While polls may not tell the whole story about how voters are feeling, the results inform politicians’ actions and we feel it’s important to bring you this context.

The first Newspoll post-federal budget is here and it shows Labor’s lead over the Coalition has slipped again, but only slightly. So everyone please brace for a bumpy federal election campaign.

The federal election is due next month and the Newspoll, conducted by YouGov and commissioned by the Australian newspaper, shows Labor holds a 54 to 46 lead over the Coalition in the two-party preferred poll and a 38 to 36 lead in the primary vote poll.

In the primary vote poll Labor fell from 41 from the last Newspoll three weeks ago. The Coalition gained a point up from 35, while the other two percentage points were taken out by the Greens which rose from 8 to 10.

Labor’s lead of 54 to 46 split on a two-party basis was down from 55 to 45 in the previous poll. It’s still a lead but ooft she slimming.

This Newspoll showed little change in the leaders’ personal ratings but Morrison took a small win.

Satisfaction with Prime Minister Scott Morrison was up a point to 42 points and Anthony Albanese’s was down one point to 43.

But when asked who people thought would be the better PM, Morrison actually took the lead again, even as he faced allegations he may have weaponised the race and religion of his pre-selection opponent when he first entered politics in 2007.

He rose a point to 43, up from previous poll’s dead heat, while Albanese remained at 42.

This Newspoll surveyed 1531 people and was conducted at the weekend after both parties handed down their pre-election 2022-23 budgets.

The Coalition was probably hoping it would see a big bounce back in the polls after it announced a bunch of cash splashes and tax cuts, plus a lil baby fuel discount for everyone and this small rise in voter preference could suggest it worked on some people.

But remember poll results must be taken with a chunky grain of sea salt.

The Australian Financial Review’s poll conducted by market research firm Ipsos surveyed 2563 voters and was conducted from Wednesday to Saturday, immediately after the federal budget but partly before Labor’s counter budget was handed down on Thursday night.

It showed only 31 per cent Coalition primary vote, with Labor on 35, and the Greens with 10 per cent — quite different to Newspoll.

Its two-party preferred results gave Labor a 48 to 37 point lead on the Coalition.

The AFR poll also found 29 per cent of respondents thought they would be better off under Tuesday’s budget, 23 per cent said they’d be worse off, and 39 said it would make no difference to their lives.

Newspoll two-party preferred

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Newspoll. Image source: The Australian

Newspoll results, which are released fortnightly, have shown Labor’s lead peaked in January and steadily dropped since.

Primary vote

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Newspoll. Image source: The Australian

We know polls have been very, very wrong in the past so time will tell if these were even close to an accurate representation of how voters were feeling.

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Image:
Getty Images / Martin Ollman





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